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Calculators - Advanced Prediction
 Calculators
- Advanced Prediction
This system uses up to two races and adjusts for weight and age. To use just fill in
as much as you can then click the
Predict button. A prediction will appear below the buttons. Entering
information is easy but a little different from other systems.
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Distance: m-miles, y-yards, k-kms, me-metres, default miles; eg 4m440y
(accepts 'marathon' or 'half')
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Time: d-days, h-hours, m-mins, s-secs, default mins; eg 4h34m23.45s
(accepts mins:secs)
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Weight: s-stone, {l,p,lbs}-pounds,k-kgs,g-grams; eg 145lbs (default lbs)
More Details
This system is more accurate than the basic prediction as it takes into
account weight, age and time since doing the PB's. The two data points
also provide a means of determining your short or long distance strengths.
Try and provide two PB's which are far apart in distance (eg 5k and half
marathon). The system doesn't predict improvements. The
result is a prediction based on your ability represented by the PB's
provided. If you have only started running recently then expect some
improvement in ability that may translate into better than predicted times. Also
if the PB's were some time previous there are two factors at work:- firstly your
improvement in ability and secondly decreases due to age after about 30 years
old or so. Also remember the course, conditions (temperature, wind) and
mental state have an impact. Always try and run a good race and do the
best you can on the day.
The lower two predictions are what the basic prediction system would give
(adjusted by age and weight) for each of the individual results. This is
just for your comparison and you should use the top prediction in most
cases. The top prediction is based on the Mercier, Leger, Desjardins
Nomogram (Track Technique 1986) and is based on a concept of 'fatigue
resistance'. This looks at how rapidly your performance drops as distance increases.
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